Modeling the Inflow of Exposed and Infected Migrants on the Dynamics of Malaria

Abstract

Malaria is currently a life-threatening vector borne disease which is endemic in most of the developing and underdeveloped countries associated with poor health care systems. In this study, a host-vector mathematical model that takes into account the inflow of human migrants who have been exposed or infected with malaria is formulated and analysed. The reproduction number of the mosquito vector population is derived and used as a threshold quantity for determining the existence of the model trivial and realistic steady states. The Routh-Hurwitz criterion and some stability theorems of Metzler matrices are used to show that the realistic disease free equilibrium is both locally and globally asymptotically stable whenever the disease reproductive number is less than one. We derived an equation for the model endemic condition and used Descartes Rule of Sign Change to established the conditions for the model to admit one or three endemic equilibrium state(s). It is further shown that in the absence of inflow of exposed or infected migrants, the model admits a globally asymptotically unique endemic equilibrium when R₀>1 and two endemic equilibria when R₀<1. Our local sensitivity analysis revealed that the adults mosquito removal and biting rates were respectively the most significant contributing parameters to the spread of malaria. The numerical simulations results suggested that the exposed and infected immigrants have no significant impact on the dynamical behaviour of the model population sub-classes.